Sunday, July 29, 2007

Market Prediction. Who's Right About the Housing Market?

Market prediction, up or down. Most news about real estate market nowaday are all gloomy.
This article is interesting to read in it's full content.

The article is written by James A. Crumbaugh, who has worked exclusively in the real estate industry for more than 35 years. He said that the worst article he has ever read in his entire adult life, was a recent column in the July 9, 2007, issue of BARRON’S.

This article from BARRON’S said that the real estate market in the US will go down another 30%.

MONDAY, JULY 9, 2007
1. Picking Through the Rubble
2. Cover Story -- Part II
3. Emerging Danger
4. Market Mayhem
5. Safe Spots for Bond Investors
Why a Housing Recovery Is Far Off
THE SPEED OF THE DROP IN HOME SALES has slowed over the past few months, leading some commentators to argue that the housing-market crisis will soon be over. But it's far too soon to start anticipating a recovery. In fact, there are solid reasons to think that the bottom might not be reached for a year or more.
The dynamics have changed since sales began to fall in the summer of 2005. At that time, the Fed was in the middle of its program to normalize short-term interest rates, which inexorably raised the cost of adjustable-rate mortgages. The flood of cheap ARMs when the fed-funds rate was very low was a key driver of the housing boom's latter stages. Many borrowers who were lured into the market by the availability of cheap ARMs should never have been granted loans, but there weren't many complaints at the time.

Experts vs. Neophytes - Who's Right About the Housing Market?
A U.S. Real Estate Pro Disagrees with British Economist's Dire Industry Outlook
Written by: James A. Crumbaugh III
July 25th, 2007 - 1:00 am

Every day we get to read another scare story about the real estate market. Some of these articles drive me up the wall because they are written by someone that has never spent a day working in the Real Estate industry, or they are written by a stock broker or some other neophyte.
However, the worst article I have ever read in my entire adult life, and I have spent my entire adult life in the real estate industry, was a recent column in the July 9, 2007, issue of BARRON’S. Before I address this article, let me give you a little background on myself. I have worked exclusively in the real estate industry for more than 35 years. I have owned and sold real estate companies, the most recent a six-office Prudential franchise with 200 REALTORS, 2,000 closed sales per year and almost $300 million in sales volume.
I sold the company at the very peak of the real estate boom because I took my own advice. I used to write a weekly real estate column for a local newspaper in Southwest Florida. In the summer of 2005, I predicted this exact market and, as a result, sold my company to a company that had been courting me for years.
My forecasts have been so accurate over the last three years that the local newspaper is running my articles from 2005 and asked me to write new articles on my view of the real estate market over the next few years. With that said, let me address the article that has my hair (what’s left of it) standing on end.

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